DJI drones: Flyaway risk '100x less' than previously thought

• White paper states that SORA 2.5 assumptions for the probability of drones leaving their operational volume and flyaways are not in line with in-the-field observations;

• The report has been created by the Dutch Trade Association for Professional UAS Operators and is based on operator data and submissions from DJI;

• Data shows that the estimation of a drone leaving its operational area and the probability of a flyaway are both 100 times smaller than guidelines indicated by JARUS, which SORA is based upon.

New independent research suggests drones - including DJI’s drones - are significantly safer than currently estimated by regulators. 

Generally, the likelihood of a flyaway - or the drone leaving the operational area - are both 100 times smaller than current predictions.

And data showed DJI’s enterprise drones almost never stray.

The white paper, published by the Dutch Association of Certified RPAS Operators (DCRO), is based on data collected over a 14-year period and millions of flight hours.

View report here

It found:

• The odds of a drone leaving the operational area was approximately one in 100,000 flight hours - not the one in 1,000 hour figure currently indicated in guidelines published by the Joint Authorities for Rulemaking on Unmanned Systems (JARUS), on which SORA (Specific Operations Risk Assessment) methodology is based.

• The chance of a drone flyaway was around one in a million flight hours - not the one in 10,000 hour figure currently indicated in JARUS guidelines.

The paper states that there is 'clear consensus' from both operators and manufacturers that the current JARUS figures are 'not based on real data and are unrealistic'.

DCRO says that it is convinced that SORA 2.5 assumptions for the probability of a UAS leaving the operational volume and flyaways are not in line with what is observed in the field.

The organisation is calling for safety statistics to be collected in a uniformed manner, and believes containment requirements should be eased, as the probability of a flyaway is negligible.

SORA is a methodology used to assess the risk of drone operations.

Data supplied by operators and DJI

DCRO’s unprecedented research was based on over 1.4m hours of flight logs from skilled operators - with only one flyaway reported.

37 members of DCOR submitted their flight safety statistics as well as four large foreign operators.

Meanwhile, DJI - the world’s leading drone manufacturer - submitted its own data, based upon an extensive number of flight hours. And it showed that its enterprise drones are safe when it comes to staying within operational boundaries.

DJI submitted statements as to the probability of the following drones leaving their operational volume:

• DJI M300/M350 RTK

• DJI M3D

• DJI M30

• DJI Dock 1 and M30

• DJI FlyCart 30

The report states that the average probability of these DJI drones leaving their operational volume is approximately 1.75 per 100,000 flight hours.

How do DJI enterprise drones prevent flyaway?

DJI’s industry-leading technology - including enhanced GPS, fail-safe mechanisms, and real-time connectivity—significantly lowers the risk of a drone flyaway while multi-band GPS, GLONASS, and other satellite navigation systems prevent it from drifting off-course.

One of DJI’s most unique safety features is the Return to Home (RTH) function, which uses pre-recorded GPS coordinates to automatically return the UAS to its take-off point if battery levels drop too low.

Additionally, geofencing technology prevents DJI drones from entering restricted spaces which further lowers the flyway risk.

What does the data mean for drone operations going forward?

The overriding theme is that drones are safer than previously thought.

And crucially, the risk of a major malfunction that could endanger the public or property has shrunk considerably. 

The flyaway risk is far lower. That means the need for mitigating safety measures - like parachutes or terminations systems - are potentially heavy-handed.

Additionally, lingering concerns over the risk of a flyaway or a drone straying out of bounds have understandably fed the belief that strict airspace regulations were needed. This data could be a step towards those restrictions being eased.

And there’s also now real-world data which could help alleviate public concerns around drones. Some people worry that a drone mission could go awry and cause damage or injury. This data shows the chances of that happening are actually far less probable - and as DJI’s data shows, bigger drones such as the FlyCart 30 actually pose a lower risk of a flyway.

Overall the findings are reassuring - and as drone technology advances, along with safety commitments from major manufacturers such as DJI - drones will only become more secure.

What is the DCRO?

Formed in 2016, the body was established to serve as a “knowledge partner” to the Civil Aviation Authority. 

It aims to provide realistic figures about the risk of operating UASs, and all members are required to collect and share safety statistics.

It was formed to help combat tough safety restrictions in the Netherlands. The Dutch CAA wouldn’t let UASs fly within 150m of major highways, but DCRO demonstrated the risk of a flyaway was so low, the limit was lowered to just 25m.

Why does the data only go back to 2011?

Simply put, because drones weren’t good enough then.

In the DCRO report, the body states UASs’ were “unreliable”, adding: “Connectors were sticking out, IP rating was unheard of, batteries were likely to fail - yet (there was) not a single flyaway among the members of DCRO between 2011 and 2023 even though all experienced numerous occasions with loss of control.”

The body links that not only to better hardware, but also better skilled pilots.

How will it impact BVLOS flights?

BVLOS - or beyond visual line of sight - is the next leap forward for drones.

DJI’s spearheading that leap, especially with the DJI Dock 2 which is the perfect device to unleash the benefits of autonomous flights.

Naturally, the concept of an automated flight feels alien to some of the public. Understandably, some have safety concerns.

However, the data published in the whitepaper should alleviate many of those concerns.

It shows drones can fly for days, months and even years without veering off course away from the operational area - couple that with the advanced safety technology mentioned above inside all of DJI’s enterprise drones and the threat of an incident is almost non-existent.

What happens next?

Ideally, more data is still needed to paint an even more accurate picture.

DCRO has called for it to be collected in a clearly defined, uniform manner and  - crucially - not on a voluntary basis.

“A collective effort by all in the industry is needed to make the UAS industry as safe as manned aviation,” states the report.

But the DCRO also suggested that the ground risk for the adjacent airspace should no longer be considered for professional operators - as the risk of a flyaway leading to a real ground risk is negligible.

“We believe that the current containment requirements for ground risk are disproportionate,” adds the report.

DCRO adds that the statistics used for the report are the only ones available at present. The organisation states: DCRO would like to challenge anyone that does not agree with the collected data to counter the conclusions of this white paper with real data and not isolated incidents of non-professional operators'.